A mere 60 days ago when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A reversion to average might be the most significant challenge they must confront in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
